We are only two days away from the start of the 2019 edition of the Eurovision Song Contest.
Like what I did last year, I wanted to jot down my predictions very close to the event because my opinion would be more set in stone by then. One of the best things about Eurovision is the sheer unpredictability of it all. For instance, if you told me during the national selections that Georgia had a high chance to stand above the others, I would think you were mad.
So here's what I think and believe about this year's entries, grouped together into special categories that seem fitting:
THE FRONT RUNNERS
When The Netherlands dropped "Arcade", it first shocked everyone to the core. Then it made those same people giddy that Amsterdam has a high chance of hosting next year. This is the song that is the one to beat and so far all of its opponents have fallen by the wayside. They only thing that could trip up Duncan Lawrence and his evocatively beautiful song is the staging. Practically everyone is severely disappointed by the low key choice of having him sitting at a piano for three minutes while the lighting and cameras do the work. But the song is just so damn good to fail at this point.
Eurovision fans were ecstatic when their wishes came true: Sergey Lazarev was going to represent Russia again after their first ever non-qualification last year. The man who gave us "You Are The Only One" and the visual feast of a performance?! Hot damn! Then, we got to finally his new song "Scream" and all of the hype quickly dissipated. But they could make up for it with the performance, right?! Nope. Once the rehearsals revealed that Lazarev will be trapped in the leftover "Shady Lady" set and play around with clones on accompanying LED screens, the odds dropped again. It's now looking to snag second or third.
There have been many trends in this year's Eurovision but the one that has annoyed me the most are the "Fuego" clones. Switzerland has the king of them with Luca Hänni's "She Got Me", along with ripping off "Despacito". The plagiarism train continued when we got to take a gander at what Hänni will be wearing, namely the same baggy jock outfit that Israel's Imri wore in 2017. Shockingly, this one has been all the rage with the fan groups much to the chagrin of many harsher voices. Thankfully it has lost some considerable amount of steam in Tel Aviv and will certainly not bring the crown back to the punching bag that is Switzerland.
Rap has never really worked in Eurovision. Italy looks to change the long standing grudge against hip hop with Mahmood and his catchy yet somber song "Soldi". The Big Five member is sure to win the most points with the juries and televoters, as it is the most popular country among the group, but I believe that it will respectively place just outside the top three.
THE SLAYERS
Katerine Duska has greatly pulled Greece up from the depths to give the once fan favorite country a worthy shot at the crown. However, it all boils down to whether or not Duska can pull off her unique vocals and that high note. She has struggled with both while on the road but it seems she has gotten a handle of it in Tel Aviv.
Cyprus so strongly wants to win this year that they just copied and pasted "Fuego". The same writing team, the same beats and drops, the same repetitive chants, etc. "Replay" has grown on me since my initial eye-roll at its music video premiere but I never really believed the hype as others did. The rehearsals seem to confirm my suspicions as there has been a lot criticism at Tamta's vocal ability. Some critics proclaim that she sings exactly like her studio track yet the preview videos from the EBU themselves reveal her struggles to carry a tune. We will have to see on Tuesday when she opens the entire contest as the first hopeful. To all of Cyprus and its fans: pray that she doesn't end up having the same fate as Aisel last year.
I stupidly overhyped Australia last year only to end up with the country/continent having a poor showing at the grand final and being a total flop in the televote. People were already crying foul that their newest representative Kate Miller-Heidke were going to steal Estonia's last year presentation but they something up their sleeve for Tel Aviv. It seems the classically trained pop-opera singer will be singing "Zero Gravity" while standing on a very bendy bar in order to simulate the literal translation of the song's title. We now just have to wait and see if the televote will propel the song into the upper echelon of the final results.
Fan fatigue seems to be set in stone for Sweden right now. The country did extremely well in the jury votes only to drop like a rock in the televote. John Lundvik stormed through Melodifestivalen with the rousing gospel-pop tune "Too Late for Love", nabbing 12 points from all of the jury (the only person to do so in history) and easily won the Swedish televote. Many see this as a possible usurper but Sweden's faltering popularity post-2015 and the noticeable lack of non-white Eurovision winners look to stop his chances.
I've been a big fan of France every since the utterly charming Bilal Hassani first sang "Roi" at the national semi-finals. Most have fobbed him off due to his YouTube celebrity status and his less-than-stellar vocals but I stuck by it when everyone else seemed to forget about it. My devotion seems to be paying off as the country is set to go all out in the staging department.
Azerbaijan pretty much pulled what Cyprus did last year. Chingiz and his song "Truth" had its fans but the radio friendly tune didn't win over a lot of critics. Some even thought that it might have been on the fence of qualification. But everybody shut their trap when the first rehearsal revealed all of the LED, CGI, and actual robots that would be used in the performance. That certainly is the old school Eurovision spirit of Azerbaijan: win with all their money and might.
TOP TEN HOPEFULS
I like many hardcore Eurovision fans fell in love with Iceland this year. The country decided to bring forth Hatari, an anti-capitalist industrial rock band that dresses in full BDSM gear and subtly has a tongue permanently affixed to their cheek. I even though the could be the next Lordi and somehow steal the crown away from the heavy favorites. Alas, I truly believe that many voters and juries will be turned off by the elaborate show in front of them plus be annoyed by the unique vocals and harsh music. Still has a firm chance of being in the top ten just from the presentation alone but it may suffer like AWS did last year.
Miki from Spain has been going strong since clinching the national final and has that "it" factor when it comes to performing at Eurovision. Some however have been dismayed at the chances of "La Venda" when the revamp killed the heavy brass in the song. The committee still see a light at the end though as they have poured a lot of time and money into the staging, giving the viewer a huge facade of apartments and a giant metaphorical puppet. I don't see it as a definite winner but is sure to be liven up the crowd in the second half of the grand final.
Czech Republic has a chance to replicate their all-time best placing last year with another modern pop ditty and its Instagram-inspired staging. "Friend of a Friend" has been ridiculed for some of its lyrics but many have already looked past it thanks to its earwormy nature.
FINAL FILLERS
Serbia is going to easily get into the final simply because the country has always been a huge favorite in the contest plus the added benefit of having its Balkan buddies being in the same semi-final. Nevena Božović is a great singer and I'm glad she has a strong chance to make good from her previous attempt at Eurovision in 2013 as part of the group Moje 3. I just wish I could connect with the song better though. Maybe the performance will do it.
Formerly known as F.Y.R. Macedonia, North Macedonia looks to shake the cobwebs and all of their bad juju off this year. "Proud" is a soaring yet not very original declaration for female empowerment and always had dark horse potential. The rehearsals show that they aren't going to falter like they usually do in the staging department and I frankly like Tamara Todevska's somehow controversial green dress.
Romania was pissed after their first non-qualification last year that they pretty rigged their national final so that the international juries had more say in their selection. The maneuver seems to be working as "On a Sunday" and the dark gothic staging accompanying it is winning fans.
Srbuk of Armenia has survived some disastrous showings at some of the pre-contest concerts to earn and her country a chance at reaching the Grand Final. The rehearsals have been promising and there isn't a lot of bad ass female songs this year.
The biggest praise Norway has been getting with "Spirit in the Sky" is it help bringing the Sami language back to Eurovision. Outside of that, not much else is going for it. The dance pop song is sure to bring party vibes to the audience but other entries have better potential to get the crowd moving plus the trio just don't seem to connect very well each other.
Holy moly, Georgia certainly brought it. Oto Nemsadze was given the golf clap during the lead-up to the contest and everyone pencilled this one in as having no chance in hell to qualify. Then people saw the first rehearsal and all of the dark imagery, fire, and dramatic scope the country is bringing to their blatantly jingoistic "Keep On Going".
My gut is telling me that Belarus will be a shocking qualifier. I can see more voters for its pure teen pop nature than a group of female singers and a deadly serious and droning duo.
Hungary allowed Joci Pápai to return to Eurovision but his ode to his father is being overshadowed by one that is all-around better in quality. Highly likely to be there on Saturday but certainly will not match Pápai's top ten finish in 2017.
I just don't get Malta. They wanted to ride on the still lingering hype train of last year's "Fuego" so they took their most recent X Factor winner, removed her strong ability to belt out a tune and give her the awkward pop ditty "Chameleon". They have a lot to going in their performance with some background special effects but that same strategy didn't save "Taboo" from non-qualification. I think it will pass the semi-final round but fall badly in the grand final.
At one point, Estonia was up there as a top ten hopeful. Unfortunately for them, the visual wow of green screen trickery and clever camera work that helped it win Eesti Laul still hasn't been replicated in Tel Aviv. They have a razor thin chance of qualifying but I can see it crossing the finish line just from the ambition and the production value alone.
Germany looks to falter significantly after their phoenix-like rebirth last year. "Sister" can still win people over with its message of sisterhood but the staging has taken a huge hit and everyone still refuses to get over how the duo S!sters aren't actually sisters.
Israel really doesn't want to win again. They already losing a ton of money hosting the contest and are now losing more because of the greedy handling of the tickets. "Home" is not really wowing anyone beyond Kobi Marimi's vocal range so they can at least have one sigh of relief.
Eurovision is certainly bigger than The United Kingdom at this point, as their selection "Bigger Than Us" is sure to flounder badly at the grand final, possibly earning the dreaded 26th place.
PAINFUL ELIMINATIONS
What happened Albania? I loved this song when it became the first one selected for the contest and got better when the revamp dropped. But the rehearsals have thrown off everyone's predictions as it seems to fallen completely apart due to the staging. The song is there, the message is there, and Jonida Maliqi is always there but the lack of staging looks to deep six their qualification.
I'm crossing my fingers fiercely for Austria to qualify. I adore the song but the lack of pre-contest hype and some stinging criticism about PAENDA's voice for the track was too great. People have started to turn around since the rehearsals but it looks too little, too late.
Portugal wowed many people with the eclectic Conan Osiris and his song "Telemóveis" but the divisive tune has routinely failed to resonate with critics in Tel Aviv.
People were jumping up and down when San Marino was announced to perform last in their semi-final. "Say Na Na Na" is an infectious dance track and many fans already enjoyed the artist Serhat back in the 2016 contest. Unfortunately, the actual performance isn't going to be as great and uplifting as the song's music video.
I actually dig the alternative rock sounding "Fire of Love" from Poland and for its effort of bringing the folk stylings of "white voice" to the general public. But the group Tulia had to go through a lot of drubbing on its way to the contest as many questioned their singing efforts and their usage of a backing track at concerts. Their contest performance looks to dispel all of these concerns and it is quite striking but it remains an uphill battle for the quartet to qualify.
DEAD ON ARRIVAL
Poor Montenegro. When I first checked out the national hopefuls for the country, "Heaven" was my runner-up. I eventually developed a soft spot for the cheesy song and the group D mol when the video of the national-winning performance came out, with the six young hopefuls standing and dancing on a high school approved set of a measure. Then came the music revamp which made the song more modern but at the expense of turning it into a complete mess. Further hampering their chances is the continuing struggles for the group to develop any sense of a harmony. And the less said about the rehearsals and what they have planned, the better.
Croatia sunk their chances of qualification once they saw Roko's leather jacket with angel wings combo. He has a great voice but his costume plus the awful English first half of the song utterly killed him.
Belgium made a very big deal when Eliot was announced as their singer and heavily hyped up the song. When it finally dropped, everyone seemed to have the same criticism: the verses were great but the chorus is sorely lacking. Eliot's live vocals have been very hit-or-miss since then and the flat stage design of two drummers and Eliot donning some kind blue and orange mountain-climbing jacket have many crossing a big red X for "Wake Up".
Latvia chose to have the coffee shop friendly "That Night" as their pick but it is too limp, too etherial to stick with voters.
Everbody raised an eyebrow when 90s house sensation and one-hit wonder Darude was selected to represent Finland. People then looked away when his song with Sebastian Rejman "Look Away" was selected. They had a brief glance back when word of Rejman's jean-pants during the rehearsals came out though.
Ireland had an alright song but the staging of it makes me shake my head viciously. A bad mixture of Latvia 2012 and Czech Republic 2009 with a hint of American Graffiti.
Nobody is running for Lithuania. Don't mind the song but they have no budget for the performance and no visual pop to make you forget about it.
Moldova is more popular by Eurovision fans for bringing the party with their selections. They have done ballads in the past, most notably with Aliona Moon in 2013 with the great "O Mie", but Anna Odobescu's "Stay" instantly fell on deaf ears. The only saving its chances now is the performance as they brought on famed sand artist Kseniya Simonova to create one of stories on the big screen while Odobescu sings. However, save for casual viewer, everyone is very well aware that this was previously done in 2011 by Ukraine, who hired Simonova herself to distract viewers away from a crappy song.
I remember a lot of people raving and moving their heads for Denmark and their song "Love Is Forever". Everyone now seems to have returned to their jaded views of the current world and are routinely panning the lovey-dovey ode to peace. What a waste of a perfectly fine 30 foot chair.
Slovenia has a higher chance of qualifying then the others here, hence why it's towards the bottom, but I frankly have not gotten the song nor the sheer boring staging since the national finals. They really should have went with Raiven and "Kaos".
For those you want the Cliff Notes version, here's what I have as my predictions for qualifying in the two semi-finals.
Semi Final 1:
Australia
Belarus
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Estonia
Georgia
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Serbia
Potential stealer(s) - Slovenia
Potential non-qualifier - Estonia, Iceland, Hungary
Semi Final 2:
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Malta
The Netherlands
North Macedonia
Norway
Romania
Russia
Sweden
Switzerland
Potential stealer(s) - Albania, Austria, Denmark, Moldova
Potential non-qualifier - Malta, Norway
As a little incentive, here's my top ten favorite songs from this year's Eurovision in alphabetical order:
Albania
Austria
France
Greece
Iceland
Italy
The Netherlands
Portugal
Sweden
Spain
I also asked my non-fan father to listen to the official recap video of all 41 songs and come up with his own top five. Here's what he came up with:
1. Sweden
2. Latvia
3. Denmark
4. Russia
5. The Netherlands
The semi-finals will take place on May 14 and May 16. You will need to stick to Twitter updates or via other countries' streams in order to enjoy them. The same now goes with the Grand Final, as Logo and Viacom decided to cancel the live airing on Saturday May 18.
