Another year, another round of predictions for the Eurovision Song Contest.
Now normally I usually use up a ton of digital ink on my opinions of the songs and their proposed stage performances and have them categorized under special labels (The Front Runners, The Slayers, Top Ten Hopefuls, etc). Unfortunately, due to the craziness of the week being filled with major holidays and events, such as today being Mother's Day, along with sheer laziness, I will be going in a different direction this year.
I will be listing all of the participating countries in alphabetical order but put them in categories of whether or not they will qualify (outside of the Big Five), and then type out my thoughts and feelings.
COUNTRIES THAT WILL QUALIFY TO THE GRAND FINAL
Australia - This has jury favorite all over it but only if Sheldon Riley doesn't pull an Isaiah. Riley is going to put a lot of effort in his singing and stage presence in order to overcome the ridiculous anti-mask bias (as in he wears a stage mask when performing) and the potentially still lingering anti-Australia but I think he will pull it off. Grand final, however, I think he will be on the lower left hand side of the screen.
Bulgaria - This is probably my most controversial pick. "Intention" was heavily mocked by the fandom since it dropped but I felt the song is fine but needed an extra punch in its rocking. As I expected, Intelligent Music Project is set to deliver a straight up rock concert for their three minutes and I think it will win over the televote and some judges just enough to make it through. Grand final wise, it will be towards the bottom but hey, at least they will qualify.
Croatia - It would very nice to see Croatia qualify again, especially after last year's controversial snub. This year, the nation picked a fine Taylor Swift like tune with a real Taylor Swift like story to it. Replacing the one artful dancer from the national final with a trio of them is a fine improvement and helps give the expected performance some more life. If it does make it to the grand final, its total results would be, just like the song's protagonist, somewhere stuck in the middle.
Czech Republic - Despite strong love of the song among fans, We Are Domi have had a very rough time performing "Lights Off" live at fan concerts. They seem to have finally worked out the kinks in Italy and are ready to deliver a big light show to match the lead singer's big notes. But the fear still remains that this will be Latvia 2017 all over again.
Finland - I'm not a huge fan of The Rasmus or "Jezebel". It certainly was my fourth favorite at the national final but Finland sees something in it. Unfortunately, their run-throughs in Turin have received mixed results all around, from the weak singing to the giant balloons that keep getting in the way. I can see it making through the semi-final only to then bomb hard on Saturday.
Greece - This is a POTENTIAL WINNER for this year's contest. I have had chills with "Die Together" at nearly every stage: the music video drop, a random listen, the TikTok preview, and the YouTube preview. The sinking/melting chairs is an interesting stage design and Amanda Tenfjord easily draws attention with her powerful voice. That being said, this could potentially backfire just like Bulgaria last year. The public may not want a Billie Ellish inspired song to win or another reminder about how last year kinda sucked. They might gravitate again to something that will raise their spirits in revelry.
Ireland - This one has been driving me crazy from the start. It was the best song of Ireland's bunch and barely won the national finals but the performance needed a lot of work. Brooke has the charisma and talent but her live performances were mixed in the lead-up to Turin. She and her team now finally seem to get everything right so she should coast in as one of the few poppy songs of semi-final 2.
Israel - I had this a certified miss until seeing the Turin footage. I liked the original bare bones version of "I.M." even if it was wisely labeled as something straight out of RuPaul's Drag Race. The revamp hampered a lot of my enjoyment, especially the near muting of the claps, and its still basic nature looked to doom it. But bless the Israeli crew for going full into the camp factor of it all while delivering some tight choreography. I'm getting "Say Na Na" vibes from it, much to the horror of the juries and snarky commentators.
Latvia - This will eat Albania's lunch (hopefully its vegetarian) and truly kick off the festivities in the first semi-final. Everything is on point for "Eat Your Salad" to steal all of the attention, especially once the video recaps repeatedly play. Plus, everyone will be eager to say the line. I do hope it will make the top ten in grand final but the juries are expected to hurt it outside of maybe Latvia's neighbors.
Lithuania - There are a lot of doubters against this country from making the final but I'm certainly not one of them. While the shimmering and mesmerizing intimacy of the national final performance might get completely lost on the big stage in Turin, I feel that Monika Liu is able to pull it off to an efficient degree. She has a very natural charisma and with some good camerawork, she should be able to steal some televotes.
Moldova - Zdob si Zdub is looking to get the hat trick. Their 2005 and 2011 performances are both now etched into Eurovision history. This one unfortunately doesn't look to be on the same level as those unless they are hiding something from the rehearsals. Seriously, where are the trains? But I think the mixture of folk and rock and roll will entice some to vote for them and keep them on the track.
Montenegro - If I had to pray hard for one song to get into the grand final, it would be this one. I love a good ole Balkan ballad and Vladana has a hauntingly exquisite one, especially since Serbia chose to skip one this year for something completely different. What they have planned for Turin could hurt their chances but it reminds me very much of Slovenia 2014, which is a good sign.
The Netherlands - Before the rehearsal week, I very much believed this had a very high chance of winning Eurovision. But the rehearsal footage showed that S10 is given a lot on her plate to carry the performance and she may botched the handling of it. I still see it making it through but it now looks like this will be a lower top ten placement.
Norway - Sure to qualify. No question. Nothing more to say besides the televote of both semi-final 1 and the grand final will be very high for the intergalactic yellow wolves Keith and Jim.
Poland - Going to get in solely because of Ochman's voice. However, the televote remains to be seen, as the performance seems to be throwing everything but the kitchen sink to say "Water!" and "Storm!" at the viewer. Some still strangely believe he has a shot to win but those chances are sure to quickly wash away by Saturday.
Portugal - This was my last choice for semi-final 1 qualifiers. I enjoy "Saudade, Saudade" and it's pretty much this year's most underrated song aka Portugal Every Year In Eurovision. But I am so concerned about how it is being staged for Turin consisting entirely of Maro and her backup singers in a circle. This is a very risky choice both for the live audience and viewers. Either the performance will be a beautiful display of intimacy and melancholy or just bunch of shots of people's butts and backsides.
San Marino - Geez, late 2000's Eurovision much? "Stripper" is alright and often has me singing the chorus and Achille Lauro has rock star written all over him. But San Marino's Turin plans are to go way overboard in order to qualify, including flames, cages, risque outfits, and a working bull mechanism. I think people will eat it up in the semi but roll their eyes when it comes to the final.
Serbia - I adore this song. Really scratches at my Peter Gabriel/Laurie Anderson itch. Serbia and Konstrakta have only had to make the bare minimum of changes when bringing the song and staging to Turin and it still works without fail. This is going to sound so awesome live when the clapping comes in.
Sweden - Could this be a POTENTIAL WINNER? Yes. Yes it could. But I will not be super happy by it. I have nothing against Cornelia Jakobs and "Hold Me Closer", both of which I like, but I don't really see the same hype that other Eurovision fans and critics see. I instead see it placing in the top five of the grand final, thanks to an above average mixture of jury and fan love.
Ukraine - This is the most obvious straight to the final pick. Luckily, the song is actually great and Kalush Orchestra have a great performance of it in the can, both figuratively and literally considering the shit they had to get through to attend this year's event. The televote in the final is expected to be quite high but I don't think Ukraine will win the contest. Best bet is a top five or ten showing.
COUNTRIES THAT WILL NOT QUALIFY TO THE GRAND FINAL
Albania - Oooo, this is a hot take. As said above, this will get people ready for Eurovision as the very first song of this year's contest but then Latvia will steal all of its attention and glory. It could sneak into the grand final but don't expect it to do very well.
Armenia - Another controversial choice. I was all for the song once it dropped. But that expected staging. Armenia looks to potentially trip up like Ireland last year, putting all of the attention on sets and gimmicks rather than the song and singer.
Austria - I unabashedly love to bop to this high energy dance track but watching it performed live, woof. DJ LUM!X is a black hole of charisma and Pia Maria has been struggling so much to get her singing just right.
Azerbaijan - This country likes to put in a lot of work and effort into their entries but this looks to miss the boat. First, the country might get the cold shoulder from voters due to the country's history with Russia. Secondly, and more importantly, the performance of "Fade To Black" is a bit troubling. It seems to rip off Azerbaijan's 2013 entry with the body mirroring of the singer but now with a big set of stairs instead of a glass box of emotion. As for Nadir Rustamli, he has the voice but he's not very handsome for the general viewer, what with his very messy and scruffy beard. It could sneak in but only juries will remember and reward it if it makes the final.
Belgium - Come on Belgium, you can do better than this. "Miss You" is perfect for the radio but there's nothing to really hang on to. As many critics have noted, this feels like a X Factor winner song. And then you have those backup dancers. Geez Louise.
Cyprus - Many have this as a near instant qualifier but I sadly see it as the end of Cyprus' hot streak. It is too mellow and soothing to latch on to, even with the expected giant clam set. It looks to be lost in the shuffle on Thursday and again on Saturday if it somehow wins a spot.
Denmark - What a snore. Perfect for playlist filler. Worthy of a golf clap in the arena but nothing else. Next.
Estonia - I had hope (ha) for this to make it to the grand final but the expected staging in Turin looks like total amateur hour. Who thought it will be a good idea for Stefan to run around the entire stage, especially with a guitar in hand?
Georgia - Easy dismissal. Sure to place dead last or second to last depending on troll votes. The song itself is alright if you into that kind of alternative rock but the whole performance is like when your uncle tries to entertain kids by walking in with those glasses with the eye springs and that's all.
Iceland - Though it may shock me but making it in, I think that Iceland's entry is just too mellow and forgettable for the average viewer. They would rather vote for something more soothing (Portugal) or more easily cheerful in its folk music (Moldova).
Malta - Ugh. I really like "Walk On Water", Malta's song for the 2016 contest that controversially replaced its voted upon song "Chameleon". For some strange reason, Malta decided to do the dangerous tactic of swapping songs again but now with more people hating on it. Emma Muscat is a fine enough singer but they have her in an outfit suited for Junior Eurovision yet it also seems to crib from Belgium 2016. Furthermore, "I Am What I Am" is the blandest of bland when it is not stealing from Dotter's "Little Dot" (Dino Medanhodžić co-composed both songs). Just a complete mess around and a total flop from last year.
North Macedonia - I seem to be one of the few people who genuinely like "Circles" but unfortunately North Macedonia's delegation decided to just have Andrea stand on stage and nothing else. And it's sad to say but she can't carry her nation's dream all on her own.
Romania - Maybe people will want to have a barely good enough Latin inspired dance tune for the grand final. Or maybe they will instantly reject it once they see the goofy outfit in store for WRS.
Slovenia - This poor band of teenagers. They have a nice song you could tap you toe to but they have no chance on the grand stage of Turin. A poorly made giant disco ball doesn't help matters.
Switzerland - What the hell Switzerland?! You nearly won it last year and you chose to follow that up with a boring Louis Armstrong reject?
COUNTRIES THAT AUTO QUALIFY TO THE GRAND FINAL
France - Could be a total mess and bomb at the grand final or at least give everyone a chance to rave and dance with the devil. The 90's kid in me absolutely loves it. Bonus points for it being in Breton.
Germany - A lot of us may be sleeping on this similar to Germany 2018. The lyrics are kinda cringey but they might resonate heavily with younger voters. Thankfully, there is no giant middle finger suit this time around.
Italy - I had this as a potential winner for the longest time. From Sanremo where it easily won up until Turin. However, it seems now like it will be just a normal host entry but one that has an easier time making the lower top ten.
Spain - The last POTENTIAL WINNER in the lot. This is the one to easily win over the public and has the biggest chance for an Eurovision song to crossover into other countries including the United States. Chanel has been putting her entire corazon into the performance and looks to at least deliver Spain's best results since 2014.
The United Kingdom - Could the UK finally do it? Can they finally bring back their old glory? I thought a total yes until I saw the spaceship prop they constructed for "SPACE MAN" and Sam Ryder's Elvis like outfit. Please don't flop.
For those who just want the Cliff Notes version, here's what I have as my predictions for qualifying in the two semi-finals:
Semi Final 1
Bulgaria
Croatia
Greece
Latvia
Lithuania
Moldova
The Netherlands
Norway
Portugal
Ukraine
Potential Snub: Moldova, Portugal
Potential Stealer: Albania, Armenia, Iceland
Semi Final 2
Australia
Czech Republic
Finland
Ireland
Israel
Montenegro
Poland
San Marino
Serbia
Sweden
Potential Snub: Australia, Czech Republic
Potential Stealer: Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Romania
Here are my top ten favorite songs from this year's contest, also in alphabetical order:
Austria
France
Greece
Italy
Latvia
Moldova
The Netherlands
Norway
Serbia
Spain
And I again asked my non-fan father to watch/listen to the official recap video and come up with his own top five:
1. Switzerland
2. Portugal
3. Malta
4. Iceland
5. Slovenia
The Semi-Finals will take place on May 10 and May 12, both starting at 3 PM EST. The grand final is on Saturday May 14 at the same exact time. If interested, you can view this year's contest in the United States via Peacock but you must at least have a premium plan with them. If you have 5 dollars to burn, you like me can use it to watch the whole shebang before then quickly canceling next month's auto payment.
