As always, these are my predictions to win, not who or what movie I wish would win.
Best Picture: The Power of the Dog
Best Actor: Will Smith - King Richard
Best Actress: Olivia Colman - The Lost Daughter
Best Supporting Actor: Troy Kotsur - CODA
Best Supporting Actress: Ariana DeBose - West Side Story
Best Director: Jane Campion - The Power of the Dog
Best Original Screenplay: Adam McKay and David Sirota - Don't Look Up
Best Adapted Screenplay: Sian Heder - CODA
Best Animated Feature Film: Encanto
Best International Feature Film: Drive My Car
Best Documentary Feature: Flee
Best Documentary (Short Subject): Audible
Best Animated Short Film: Robin Robin
Best Live Action Short Film: The Long Goodbye
Best Original Score: Jonny Greenwood - The Power of the Dog
Best Original Song: "No Time To Die" - No Time To Die
Best Cinematography: Ari Wegner - The Power of the Dog
Best Film Editing: Peter Sciberras - The Power of the Dog
Best Production Design: Patrice Vermette and Zsuzsanna Sipos - Dune
Best Costume Design: Paul Tazewell - West Side Story
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Göran Lundström, Anna Carin Lock and Frederic Aspiras - House of Gucci
Best Sound: Dune
Best Visual Effects: Dune
Oh boy, I can't wait the most unanticipated Oscars of all time, which is sure to net its worst television ratings of all time!
Seriously though, I so don't really care for this year's Oscars even as a diehard fan. The rest of America will be more vicious and not even bother to watch or care.
Yeah, I know I just copied-pasted the two previous lines from my predictions last year but it is still true. Like seriously, Wanda Sykes = Ratings Success?! Fuck no!
As many an Oscar podcaster have stated, either this will be a small bump up from last year or be a complete debacle. Everyone in Hollywood save for ABC and the delusion Oscar producers are royally pissed off at the subtraction of 8 awards from being fully broadcasted, the show seriously starting a hour before it goes live to the nation, the rumored presence of non-Hollywood people such as Tony Hawk, Shaun White and Kelly Slater, the addition of a "We Don't Talk About Bruno" number despite it not being nominated or having a chance to be because Disney royally fucked up, and plenty more.
I'm fine with Regina Hall as a host but Wanda Sykes is true X-Pac heat for me. Seriously, her getting such a major gig in 2022 despite doing nothing of true worth since the early 2000's? As for Amy Schumer, I don't really care for her much anymore. She's long past her peak stardom, Hollywood gave up on her after several failures and she has mostly been doing a cooking show. It would be nice for her to get a second chance but her recent very serious/not really funny crack that she wants Ukrainian President Zelenskyy to participate has made a lot of people shake their heads.
I predict the television ratings to be somewhere between 7.85 and 9.65 million viewers. And that's me being generous. If you think I'm being too cynical, look up the recent data on the viewership numbers for all of the Best Picture nominees.
Speaking of Best Picture, it is all down to The Power of the Dog or CODA to win the big cheese. CODA is a crowd pleaser but I thought last year the Academy would want a crowd pleaser to win and that prediction failed. Plus, the Academy is now more open and international so unless Drive My Car pulls a Chariots of Fire, Dog will surely win.
But man, if Netflix fails again and Apple becomes the first streaming service to win Best Picture, that will be so soul-crushing.
Campion is a lock for Director. No discussion.
My gut has been on Cumberbatch winning Best Actor but all of the voices and recent award wins for Will Smith has me second guessing. I very much could see another Best Actor fiasco like last year's but I think the Academy wants to finally reward Smith, similar to how they rewarded DiCaprio.
Best Actress is so incredibly hard to predict. Chastain is the favorite, especially with all of the campaigning she did, but I hear a lot of people saying it might go to Colman or Cruz. Kidman has no chance in hell and Stewart is a dark horse but I'm going with Colman. People love her as much or even more than Chastain right now.
Kotsur has eaten Smit-McPhee's lunch recently at many awards so he and DeBose are locks for the Supporting categories.
The screenplay awards are also so difficult to predict. Original Screenplay will either be Don't Look Up or The Worst Person in the World but Adapted Screenplay can go to any of them except for Dune.
I really, really, really want The Mitchells vs. The Machines or Flee to win Best Animated Feature but the Disney collective in the Academy is still too strong and Encanto has been too big in the American pop culture to ignore. Luca and Raya and the Last Dragon will surely not split the votes for Disney to win here.
However, I really can see Flee making history by winning Best Documentary. Summer of Soul has been the heavy favorite but this is an once-in-a-lifetime event, something an Academy member would be a fool to pass up on helping make history.
Drive My Car is a lock for International Feature. No chance for the yak.
Expect Netflix to pick up two of the short categories and for Riz Ahmed to finally earn an Oscar albeit for his live-action short instead of his acting.
Best Score, which so stupidly is not going to be performed and awarded live on television, is down between Hans Zimmer and Jonny Greenwood. It's either going to be part of The Power of the Dog's grand collection or part of Dune's potential sweep of the tech categories.
Similar as to when Sam Smith won, I expect another Bond song to "surprisingly" win Best Original Song. Lin-Manuel Miranda is just going to have to continue waiting for his EGOT.
After being famously almost snubbed, I will laugh when it is announced that House of Gucci won Best Makeup and Hairstyling over The Eyes of Tammy Faye.
Much to the horror of your parents, Belfast is going to be shut out.
And no, I don't give two shits about the Oscar Fan Favorite vote.
See you on Monday with my reaction to the awards and the ceremony itself.
