It's really great to say this again: We are two days away from the start of the 2021 Eurovision Song Contest.
We've already had some bumps in the road, with more happening everyday (looking at you Poland), but fans across the globe are excited to have an actual contest this year. I'm sadly still unable to attend the show live for the first time due to the lingering COVID pandemic but I'm overjoyed that the show will mostly be done live and in person with some of the fans in the crowd.
Once again, I'm jotting down my predictions both for the two semis and the grand final. Here's what I think and believe about this year's entries, grouped together into special categories that seem fitting:
THE FRONT RUNNERS
Other than the expected "Arcade" effect, last year we were expected to see the Billie Eilish effect at Eurovision. Bulgaria had that covered with Victoria and her song "Tears Getting Sober". Victoria returns again with "Growing Up Is Getting Old", a song she said she starting writing in 2019 but has now become of several Eurovision songs reflecting on last year's cancellation and the COVID crisis. The song has the same magical touch as "Tears" and coupled with the outstanding staging we're seeing from the rehearsals, I believe that it is finally time for Bulgaria to get this first win. Its biggest remaining hurdle is the pervading perception that the public want a "fun" winner this year after all that we collectively went through.
Italy has been hovering for a win the past three competitions, nearly nabbing it in 2019 with "Soldi". Instead of another soaring ballad like "Fai Rumore", the country is giving us Maneskin's "Zitti E Bouni". It has the flavor of 2000's rock, the first of two such throwbacks this year, but the high aggressive energy the band brings to it is highly effective. It could be another silver medal but I and many others can see it getting gold instead, especially with what they have in store for the final performance.
At no point, from its song drop to today, did I think Switzerland had a chance at winning. I'm still flabbergasted that some people think it should easily win. It took me a while to truly appreciate Gjon' Tears' "Repondez-Moi" but "Tout L'Univers" remains very forgettable to me. I had some promise for a potential change when I first saw the first set of rehearsals but the second rehearsals, where we get to see more fully his "interpretive dancing", sunk that opportunity. It seems I'm not the only one, as many have started to change their tune on Switzerland's odds.
THE SLAYERS
France should be in the above category considering the amount of press praise it has been getting. Honestly though, like Switzerland, I think they are overrating it too much. I do like "Voila" but it being very, very French is a double edge sword. Plus it's way too serious and sad. The juries will eat it up but I expect the public vote to be shockingly low.
Oh, Malta. What do I now want you to fail? I like both Destiny and "Je Me Casse", even though the song keeps making hum Fifth Harmony's "Worth It" instead. While I first laughed off it's high chance to win this year, I'm now gobsmacked at what I feel is heavy blinders on the press. I saw a lot of critics praise the ever loving hell out of the first rehearsals, while I and much of the public were concerned and/or bashing some of the creative decisions. With the second rehearsals, the tide has turned a significant bit and the worrying has increased. I think it will squeak by into the grand final but a part of me can vividly see the press with open jaws at its non-qualification.
Some strange press pundits think Russia has a good chance at winning. That's pure bull. Although, I do see Manizha doing quite well with her creative performance of "Russian Woman". She has already got some fan backing after all of the stupid controversy she had to endure in her home nation. She will get even more global fans after Tuesday and, more than likely, Saturday.
Thank god Greece didn't give us another "Supergirl". "Last Dance" will be the best of the 80's revival songs this year and Stefania will certainly be striking with her purple outfit and dancing alongside her heavily special effected crew.
Similar to their experience with "Fuego" albeit to a small degree, Cyprus is riding on some high momentum with Elena Tsagrinou and "El Diablo". Still being decried as a Lady Gaga ripoff, Elena and her delegation are putting a lot of effort into their performance and hoping to steal votes away from the other female pop singers.
Time is starting to run out a little for Croatia. "Tick Tock" was a big fan favorite going into the contest but has lost some steam since rehearsals. I and many fans still have faith in it but it more than likely will suffer the same fate of Belarus 2019 if it passes its semi-final.
Also coming down the standings is San Marino. "Adrenalina" floored the internet when it dropped and Senhit has been winning a lot of the Eurovision fanbase over the past year with her antics. However, with surprise guest rapper Flo Rida more than likely not coming to Rotterdam, she has faltered with the general public. Senhit still has a chance making it through Semi Final 2 but the reputation of her lowly country could be her undoing.
Putting Azerbaijan here is a bit of a joke as Efendi's "Mata Hari" doesn't slay like "Cleopatra". However, even though I am concerned about her getting swallowed up by the stage, I think Efendi and her risque dancers will do well and make enough of a statement to get into the grand final.
TOP TEN HOPEFULS
Expected to win last year before the cancellation, Iceland will more than likely not be able to do it this year. "10 Years" is a great song from Daoi Freyr and his group Gagnamagnio but it is so not "Think About Things". However, the expected goofy and colorful performance will cause it to safely secure a spot in the top ten at least.
Lithuania also had a chance to win last year but they are almost the opposite of Iceland this time around. "Discotheque" blows "On Fire" out of the water and The Roop are far more confident in their presentation. Crossing my fingers it will be higher up the top ten and potentially become the country's best result ever.
Ukraine returns to the stage after their controversial exit from 2019 and could potentially shake up the lower half of the top ten with Go_A and their electro-folk bop "Shum". The crazy factor is high, with their expected performance to include CGI shimmering people running, a snow white forest platform, and Tron-like power discs.
FINAL FILLERS
It's nice to place The United Kingdom higher up on this category than usual. "Embers" is a great pop song that you could viably hear playing on your radio today and it always gets my toes tapping. Unfortunately, the rehearsal footage has me considered, especially with the potentially useless giant trumpets.
The Netherlands obviously don't want to host the contest again, even with the cancellation. That being said, "Birth Of A New Age" is a pretty fantastic host country song, one of the best lately.
Portugal shocked everyone by picking an all English song for the first time ever. I believe they will continue to shock the world by easily making it in. Though a little sleepy at first, "Love Is On My Side" grabs your attention and crescendos at the end. I had faith in it before the rehearsals started and I've already cashed out massively on that bet. Critics gave it a pass to the final, even while still grumbling about "Telemoveis" bombing in 2019.
I might be crazy but like Portugal I think Spain will be doing better than expected. I getting the same kind of vibes as Italy 2013. Blas Canto has a better song than last year's attempt and the stage performance looks to do wonders for it.
Good ole Albania giving us another bombastic Balkan ballad. Anxhela Peristeri will do enough with "Karma" to get the country middle of the pack at the grand final.
I'm still not happy with Keiino losing out on representing them but Norway at least has some quality with their preferred performer. Tix looks like that YouTuber you hate but he does charisma and some decent singing chops. He's also an all-around very nice guy in general. I think my main problem with him and his song "Fallen Angel" is that it's too basic of an Eurovision entry. There's nothing that really elevates it a lot in my opinion and I think much of the public will think so too come Saturday.
I can't help but love Finland this year. Though the song is bit eye-rolling, I can't fully scrub my adoration for nu-metal out of my life. Plus, Blind Channel go full bore with it and like a good rock band want the crowd to go crazy with them.
Ireland is one of this year's biggest "on the fence" acts. "Maps" is a strong song for the country but Lesley Roy really needs to give it all in order to pass, something she hasn't quite shown in the rehearsals. The country is going all out in the performance aspect with special effects and unique camerawork, something that has easily helped save lesser acts, but whether it will be a Russia 2016 or Iceland 2016 remains to be seen come the top ten announcements on Tuesday.
Though it should be something up my alley, I wasn't a fan of Serbia last year or even this year. Hurricane has the fire with "Loco Loco" but having just the trio on the vast stage is bringing bad Moje 3 vibes.
Oh how I greatly hope to see Latvia and Samantha Tina get through to the final. The rehearsals improved over time and Tina is still an amazing presence. She just needs to succeed with the rest of her strong block in Semi Final 2.
I don't feel hate or sorry for Germany. They purposefully picked a kooky performer to perform a kooky song and match it with a kooky stage performance. It will draw some eyes and voters to keep it from the absolute bottom but not enough past #20.
It's not fun for me to have Sweden this low. "Voices" certainly wasn't my pick from Melodifestivalen but I understand its draw and Tusse is a nice guy. But the song is very much in the vein of The Weeknd and the real lyrics of "a million voices" will piss off the Eurovision crowd. Plus, the rehearsals show that Tusse is now sporting a Mortal Kombat gi and can only do the Rykee dance of rapid squatting and holding in his pee. There is a part of me that really believes we will see the second ever time Sweden fails to qualify on Tuesday. Of course, that is only if the juries don't save it and then proceed to carry it chiefly in the grand final.
PAINFUL ELIMINATIONS
Let's get the most painful out of the way first: Australia. Montaigne and her crew put a lot into the song and the overall package for "Technicolor" but I think her not performing live in Rotterdam (due to COVID and travel issues) will severely hurt her chances. A lot of the press think otherwise but I really do see the voting public not to be there for her because of this issue.
Also painful for me is the high chance of Czech Republic not making through. I'm really behind Benny Cristo and see him being a great star, even after all of those pointless revamps of his 2019 entry "Kemama". "Omaga" is another bop from him but the rehearsals have been very poor and caused many to scratch him.
Removing all of what's currently going on with the country in the news, Israel could be left behind by the public. Eden Alene has the star power and the chops to hit that whistle note but with so many other female pop singers in the competition, especially in her semi final, she might not make it through.
While I still roll my eyes at Estonia and their sheer insistence on Uku Suviste, I will say that I do enjoy "The Lucky One", especially when the Michael McDonald-like backup singer goes "Better off alone!" But the national final performance wasn't a game-changer and the rehearsals at Rotterdam show no improvement. As many have said, maybe Uku should use that crystal ball to show him what the future lies and quickly change up things before it's too late.
I'm still not a big fan of Vincent Bueno but he is giving it all to see Austria qualify this year with "Amen". But the song isn't that good enough, even with some pizzazz going into the performance.
Making it two for two with "Amen" songs, Slovenia doesn't look to get off the blocks. Ana Soklic is in the dreaded 2nd performance position in the first semi final and her amazing voice is sure to be overshadowed by better acts.
When you fail at making something truly memorable, don't give critics an easy layup with a bad title. Romania did just that with "Amnesia", Roxen's not-so-hot follow-up to "Alcohol You". The song is a bit of a wash but it is the rehearsals that greatly show that this will not stick with voters.
DEAD ON ARRIVAL
Georgia. "You" is absolutely dreadful and ponderous. The performance looks terrible. Moving on.
Poland had no chance with "The Ride", even with its 80's inspired aesthetic. Rafal is a very dull singer and all of his live performance videos have received significant downvotes. The rehearsal videos have shown that the country can't make a good performance out of it either. Then to top it all off, he also will not perform live because someone from his delegation has now tested positive for COVID.
While it's nice to have a Danish song from Denmark, that doesn't change the fact that "Ove Os Pa Hinanden" is a laughably bad song. Somebody brought up ABC's "The Look of Love" when comparing with it and I briefly changed my tune for a second until I remembered that that song is a masterpiece and this is a crappy ripoff of 80's schlager. Even if you have a soft spot for it or see it as a guilty pleasure, the performance looks to be a disaster. I can't believe the show producers are letting this go last in the second semi final.
Vasil has a great voice but he can't save North Macedonia this time around with "Here I Stand". And that obvious artistic swipe from Dotter's "Bulletproof" performance has many booing him already.
Though we have several sad, serious and somber songs, Belgium takes the cake. "The Wrong Place" is a polished yet boring coffee shop song and Hooverphonic come off as way too pretentious, especially with their dark and gritty performance. What is with this country and this horrible musical trend?
My poor Moldova fell off a cliff once it became clear that the dancing ice cream cones from the music video of "Sugar" weren't coming to Rotterdam. Coupled with the pathetic staging and you have an easy non-qualifier.
For those who just want the Cliff Notes version, here's what I have as my predictions for qualifying in the two semi-finals.
Semi Final 1
Azerbaijan
Croatia
Cyprus
Ireland
Lithuania
Malta
Norway
Russia
Sweden
Ukraine
Potential Stealer: Australia, Israel
Potenial Non-Qualifier: Ireland, Malta, Sweden
Semi Final 2
Albania
Bulgaria
Finland
Greece
Iceland
Latvia
Portugal
San Marino
Serbia
Switzerland
Potential Stealer: Austria, Estonia
Potenial Non-Qualifier: Latvia, San Marino, Serbia, Switzerland
Here are my top ten favorite songs from this year's contest in alphabetical order:
Bulgaria
Croatia
Czech Republic
Finland
Iceland
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Ukraine
United Kingdom
And I again asked my non-fan father to watch/listen to the official recap video of all 39 songs and come up with his own top five:
1. Iceland
2. Germany
3. Slovenia
4. North Macedonia
5. Portugal
The semi finals will take place on May 18 and 20, both starting at 3 PM EST. The grand final is on Saturday May 22. You will need to check Twitter for updates or watch it live via other countries' streams.
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