2023 Oscars Predictions

As always, these are my predictions to win, not who or what movie I wish would win.

Best Picture: Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Actor: Austin Butler - Elvis

Best Actress: Cate Blanchett - Tár

Best Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon - The Banshees Of Inisherin

Best Director: Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans

Best Original Screenplay: Martin McDonagh - The Banshees Of Inisherin

Best Adapted Screenplay: Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, and Ian Stokell - All Quiet On The Western Front

Best Animated Feature Film: Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio

Best International Feature Film: All Quiet On The Western Front

Best Documentary Feature: Fire Of Love

Best Documentary (Short Subject): The Elephant Whisperers

Best Animated Short Film: My Year Of Dicks

Best Live Action Short Film: Le Pupille

Best Original Score: Justin Hurwitz - Babylon

Best Original Song: "Naatu Naatu" - RRR

Best Cinematography: James Friend - All Quiet On The Western Front

Best Film Editing: Paul Rogers - Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Production Design: Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy, and Bev Dunn - Elvis

Best Costume Design: Mark Coulier, Jason Baird, and Aldo Signoretti - Elvis

Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Catherine Martin - Elvis

Best Sound: Top Gun: Maverick

Best Visual Effects: Avatar: The Way Of Water

Betting on Everything winning it all in the end but I do see a timeline where All Quiet is announced to the shock and horror of the crowd.

Butler or Fraser. The new hot thing from Elvis that nobody really knows or really trusts as a capable actor versus the likable, bankable former star with a great comeback story until a much better comeback story came around and people actually saw The Whale. What ultimately helped sway me is the sheer fact that biopics do very, very well in Best Actor.

I really want Michelle Yeoh to win. I really, really, really do. But Blanchett is Blanchett and I can easily see us having another Boseman/Hopkins debacle. Plus even I picked someone else over Yeoh when doing my own Best Actress.

Quan still has it in the bag.

Best Supporting Actress has been a toss up in recent weeks. Save for Chau who has no chance of winning. Hsu and Curtis will likely cancel each other out, however the latter has been on an upswing after winning at the SAGs. I would love for Bassett to win but the anti-superhero bias that Academy has, plus the fact that her character/performance is no Ledger Joker, has everyone giving up on her. That's why I think Condon is going to win.

The Academy doesn't really like directing duos. Unless they want to give Everything a big total, I expect Spielberg to be treated to his second Oscar for Best Director.

Everything is pegged to win Best Original Screenplay but I think the Academy would rather treat the award to something less sci-fi/action heavy. I have Banshees winning but I would not be shocked if Triangle of Sadness snatches it instead.

I feel bad for Sarah Polley, even though I like the rest of the world don't really care or want to watch Women Talking. All Quiet is going to eat its lunch when it comes to Best Adapted Screenplay.

I so want Pinocchio to win Best Animated Feature. I regrettably still haven't seen Turning Red despite having an active Disney+ account and a blu-ray of the movie. It might be a great film that I ultimately love but I really don't want Disney/Pixar to keep dominating this category all the time. They have won it here nine out of the last ten years!

No comment needed for Best International Feature.

God damn, the Documentary categories are tough this year. I have to go with my heart and choose Fire Of Love. But the Academy might want to make a political statement this year and give it either to the one featuring the plights of Ukraine (A House Made Of Splinters) or the plight or a Russian opposition leader (Navalny). Of course there's also the "save the birds/Earth" one (All That Breathes) and the "Nan Goldin says fuck the Sacklers" one (All The Beauty and The Bloodshed). But come on, nothing really beats the dangerously beauty of Mother Nature.

As for Doc Short, I went with the animal one. Yeah, Stranger At The Gate has the more interesting American story and big backing behind it but never doubt a doc from Netflix.

Best Animated Short can be really tricky when there isn't a much loved Disney/Pixar entry involved. My Year Of Dicks has stood far out since its nomination and voters most likely would have checked it out simply because of its catchy title. But The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and The Horse has big time actors doing voices, was released on Apple+ on Christmas, and has won many awards. Then you have Ice Merchants which also picked up a bunch of awards. I still have to go with Dicks but The Boy is very close at sniping it.

Le Pupille is on Disney+ and it was produced by Alfonso Cuarón. Of course it's winning Best Live Action Short.

Apparently the score in All Quiet had many people talking about it so it could win Best Original Score. But as much as I disliked Babylon, the bombastic score for it is pretty good, not to mention it's one of the few scores that stayed with me from last year.

I enthusiastically wish for "Naatu Naatu" to win Best Song. Rihanna bore me to tears, Lady Gaga had beautiful music but shitty lyrics, I and everybody else don't really remember the Everything song (plus I love David Byrne but he already has an Oscar), and Diane Warren is only here because of all of her friends in the Academy.

I mean come on, Everything has to win Best Editing. All that handling of the timelines, that amazing moment with the multiple overlaying Michelle Yeohs, the big finale, etc.

Elvis is clearly going to get a lot of the tech awards though I'm still standing my ground on Best Cinematography. As much as I wish for a woman to finally win in the category, this time being Mandy Walker, I expect the voters to forgo making history chiefly in order to award yet another pretty looking "war is hell" movie.

I was originally going to have Avatar be shut out of all categories. However, after watching an official Oscars video on the Visual Effects nominees, as well as hearing people's opinions on the sci-fi sequel that I still haven't seen, I had to dash that hope. It will most likely win Best Visual Effects, even though I wish it would go to Top Gun: Maverick.

See you on Monday with my reaction to the awards and the ceremony itself.