We are only two days away from the start of the 2018 edition of the Eurovision Song Contest. The fun and festivities kick off with the first semi-final that has been dubbed by critics and fans as the "bloodbath" due to the high number of popular entries competing to get one of only ten slots into the Grand Final.
Like what I do with the Oscars, I wanted to jot down my predictions very close to the event because my opinion would be more set in stone by then. One of the best things about Eurovision is the sheer unpredictability of it all. For instance, if you told me during the national selections that I would be enamored and swoon by the picks for Moldova and Georgia, I would think you were mad.
So here's what I think and believe about this year's entries, grouped together into special categories that seem fitting:
THE FRONT RUNNERS
When the music video for "Toy" dropped on YouTube, everybody was raving and hailing Israel as the winners. My opinion for them however has remained the same: it's wacky and great but will make it to the top ten, not the top spot. Firstly, there's the easy comparisons to Italy from last year: very popular music video and the high fandom and early hype that burned out too quickly. Then you have the rehearsal footage that shows the performance is going to be riddled with Japanese theming and walls of maneki-nekos. How is that supposed to match a song about female empowerment?
Australia got an early boost to win thanks to the star power of Jessica Mauboy and the simple messaging of its boppy banger "We Got Love". Plus, the Australian committee has done a whole lot of press and meet-ups in Europe in order to increase their chances with the public vote, which has always hurt them for the past two contests. The rehearsals were promising but many people are worried for Australia's chances due to Mauboy's vocal issues, the barren staging, and the weird gift-wrapped dress that she will be wearing.
If I was to make a bet, I would put money down on Estonia to win the contest. Elina Nechayeva is very beautiful, she's vocally amazing, she hits that operatic high note with ease, and the stage lighting and her special light up dress increase the power of the song. Nobody has been a winner with an opera tune but this could be the year.
Out of the Big Five currently, France is nursing a nice little streak of ending up in the top ten. This year however they have a chance at the gold medal with "Mercy", a story song that focuses on the refugee crisis still affecting Europe. The band behind it Madame Monsieur has been winning over crowds with it at concerts, especially during the breakdown.
THE QUEEN SLAYERS
As odd as it might be, Eurovision has had a country win with a metal song. I'm of course referring to Finland's famous victory in 2006 with the heavy makeup laden metal group Lordi and their song "Hard Rock Hallulejah". The 2006 contest was fairly known for how open the field was. This year's contest is pretty much the same way thus why I and many others can see Hungary shocking the world and winning it all. AWS have a killer song with "Viszlát Nyár" and seem to be doing wonders with the main stage in order to pump up their performance.
Spain has been running wild with the social media crowd due to the audience friendly story behind Amaia & Alfred. Two teens who really fell in love with each other on the reality show Spain used to find their Eurovision pick?! That certainly will win over hearts and minds. It remains to be seen whether the couple can pull it off live on television as many critics have been questioning the lack of on-screen chemistry between the two and the not-so-stellar staging.
The good folks in Ukraine picked a real winner with Mélovin and his bombastic "Under The Ladder". The country's leaders however are crossing their fingers very tightly after all of the troubled they had hosting the contest last year. Mélovin has a great look, has the "it" factor, and brings the energy of the song at its conclusion by singing at a piano while surrounded by fire. The only thing that could trip him up at the post is his struggle with the diction of English.
I may be overreacting with my enthusiasm for Sweden this year, thinking they have a real shot at winning the contest, but the complete package is right there. Good looking male singer, some sex appeal, the compact LED set, and the direction of making the performance a real-life music video.
TOP TEN HOPEFULS
Alexander Rybak is going to be trying his damnest to win again but even he knows that Norway will likely walk away and be fine with a top ten placement. Rybak, his fiddle and his goofy tune about the passion for music and songwriting will certainly steal a lot of points away from the other acts.
Finland brought the international star power this year by selecting Saara Aalto. The runner-up of The Voice in her native land and one of the most recent runner-ups in the U.K. version of The X Factor, she is looking to slay with the dark dance track "Monsters". Her pre-contest performances with the song have been vocally dodgy but she and her crew seemed to work all of the kinks out of it judging from the rehearsals.
I absolutely loved them last year but I wasn't so hot on Moldova this year. The group DoReDoS were a talented bunch and were able to survive the hard press and concert tour in tact. My opinion about their chances to qualify all changed however when the footage of their first rehearsal went live. The colorful costumes, cheeky humor, and exuberant happiness on display will greatly benefit their shot at the gold.
"I love beyond the bones/Oh-oh-oh". I really wish I could hate Bulgaria and their supergroup entry Equinox just for the terrible lyrics of the song "Bones". But the harmonies on the track are so tight. They will prove that their second place showing last year wasn't a fluke and keep their streak of top ten finishes going strong.
People want another Beyonce in the contest and they have in the form of Eleni Foureira. Cyprus chose the Greek singer to represent their island country due to her music success and to once again easily nab 12 points from Greece. Foureira will certainly bring the fire with "Fuego" as the rehearsals have been earning high marks from critics.
I must be one of the very few people thinking that Denmark has a chance to place high. Rasmussen and "Higher Ground" was an early favorite for me and I think many will fall in love with the Game of Thrones/Vikings aesthetic of the performance.
When I first heard "Light Me Up" from Poland, I instantly had a feeling that it had an easy path to the final. I have since fluctuated on my overall opinion on the song but I think it could really have the crowd jumping, bring a must needed boost to the show if placed during the middle, and could make it to the lower end of the top ten.
FINAL FILLERS
Good ole country boy Waylon of The Netherlands drew some attention from Eurovision fans with his country rock song "Outlaw in 'Em". He drew even more attention recently when the rehearsals revealed that his fake band members on stage will be doing some krumping during the tune. I think he has a shot at making it through the first semi but will stumble at the final.
Despite having themselves in the form of SuRie and the chorus of the song being a major hit with live audiences, I don't think The United Kingdom will be able to reach the top ten this year. Top 15 on the other hand is viable.
Unless there is a shocker in the semi-finals, Azerbaijan will continue their streak going into the final. However they will also continue their middling streak of not doing well in the Grand Final despite the efforts of Aisel, the dance track "X My Heart", and their special triangle props.
Oh how the mighty have fallen. Czech Republic really looked like a winner this year with Mikolas Josef and his Jason Derulo rip-off song "Lie To Me". Unfortunately, during the first rehearsals in Lisbon, Josef suffered a very painful back injury while doing a flip. His crew are desperately trying to remedy the situation and change up the staging to prevent him from exerting too much. He should still make it through the semi final but I think the unforeseen circumstances and the paired back performance will harm his chances at the top ten.
Lithuania is one of my favorite underdog nations in the contest due to their wild selections. I really hope that the cute Ieva Zasimauskaitė and her sappy yet still heartwarming "When We're Old" do well and cause a lot of people to reach for the tissues.
I do not love Belarus at all. They changed up their song "Forever" too many times to no avail and I can't really stand Alekseev and his weird smile. The only reason I can see him in the final is because of their intended Eurovision performance. Instead of having Alekseev wearing a LED suit like he did in the national final, the singer is going to be interacting with the steady camera by literally giving it a rose, there's an interpretive dancer running amok, and there's going to be something involving an arrow piercing the singer's hand and blood coming out. It sounds nuts but that makes good Eurovision.
I can't take Armenia seriously mainly because of their song. It is called "Qami" and a great majority of it consists of Sevak Khanagyan saying it over and over again before he bellows out a big final one. Qami sounds a lot like "Come Me". Seeing and hearing someone languishing over the words "Come Me" and then screaming it out to the world is beyond hilarious. That being said, it will more than likely make it to the final but the stupid Stonehenge set design will detract voters.
In terms of songs that could play well here in the States, Germany has one with Michael Schulte and his bittersweet tale of parental loss with "You Let Me Walk Alone". I'm crossing my fingers that he and the song can finally lift Germany out of the bottom rung of the final rankings but I fear it's too depressing to draw a lot of votes.
Italy has two ugly looking rock singers singing a somber song about anti-terrorism. Add that with the self-plagiarism charges levied against the song and you have a potential recipe to fail.
Like all host countries before them, Portugal doesn't want to win back-to-back. The very sleepy and wistful "O Jardim" proves that.
I really, really don't want Romania to go to the Grand Final but I can see them there, thus keeping the qualification streak alive. The Humans' lead singer is great but the song is so pathetically trite.
PAINFUL ELIMINATIONS
I don't want F.Y.R. Macedonia to fail at all. "Lost and Found" is an unique dance track and they can really accentuate the sex appeal of the lead singer of Eye Cue but the rehearsals show they are faltering in their staging and costumes.
Another fan favorite I sadly can see getting axed, Slovenia might lose out at the finals because of their continuing struggles with the chorus drop.
"A Matter of Time" may sound like a James Bond song, which really works in Eurovision, but I have not been very moved by Belgium this year. Sennek has a cool voice but she's still struggling in the vocal department and the rehearsals didn't look promising.
The bizarre spaceship theme they are doing for Cesár Sampson's performance of "Nobody But You" could really hurt Austria.
They might break their streak of non-qualification but Ireland is competing with too many popular favorites in the first semi-final.
We have two dark dance songs about mental illness this year and I think Malta will be the one sitting home during the final.
Eugent Bushpepa of Albania has a soaring song and gets to unleash a hell of a high note but he might get forgotten about in the first semis.
I'm really pulling for Serbia but I can see Sanja Ilić & Balkanika missing out on a Saturday performance. "Nova Deca" is a moving ethnic dance song yet the flat staging is hurting their chances.
Laura Rizzotto has a great look and voice but I don't think Latvia will earn a spot with their Fifty Shades of Grey "inspired" song "Funny Girl".
Switzerland just can't catch a break. I actually like the American stylings of "Stones" but as with other nations it needs to somehow do far better than the heavy favorites in the first semis.
DEAD ON ARRIVAL
Russia spent this entire time shitting the bed. Julia Samoylova is a talented singer and I was glad that the Russian committee kept their promise to her to participate in Eurovision after the controversy with Ukraine last year. However, I was really turned off by "I Won't Break" upon first listen and remain tepid after multiple re-listens. She can't sing well in English, she bombed hard at the Moscow event, and she remains off key during the Eurovision rehearsals. Adding fuel to the dumpster fire is the continuing marketing decision to hide her wheelchair and having her sit atop a turd-looking mountain for the performance. It sucks that it had to be her but this could very well be the first time Russia doesn't qualify.
Now for the second elephant in the room: San Marino. The country's decision process was an abomination. The song "Who We Are" rips the chorus from the 2015 contest winner "Heroes". The featured rapping of Jenifer B is incredibly laughable. And then they come to Lisbon with those ridiculously stupid little robots. The mini sign of "Justice for Valentina!" is cute but they will be scrapping for some points in the semi-finals to avoid a nul points.
Greece still doesn't have the money to pony up to host the contest and they have no chance winning this year's edition, let alone pass the semis with the tedious ""Oniro Mou".
Franka has improved the chances for Croatia with the song "Crazy" judging from the rehearsal footage in Lisbon but it will be one of the first to bleed out in the first semi-final.
Ari Ólafsson can hit that hit note in "Our Choice" but Iceland will not make it very far. The staging is too pathetic and the song doesn't ring too well.
Georgia disappointed a lot of people when after so much build up and being one of the last countries to announce this representative they gave us a bunch of old men. Ethno - Jazz Band Iriao (yes, that's their real name) has good harmonies but unless everyone in Europe wishes to have an entry in the final solely for a piss break, they will not advance.
"Inje" has grown on me just a little but everyone has already written off the chances for Montenegro this year. The terrible suit jacket Vanja Radovanović is wearing gives him a chance to win the Barbara Dex Award.
As a little incentive, here's my top ten favorite songs from this year's Eurovision in alphabetical order:
Australia
Denmark
Estonia
F.Y.R. Macedonia
Hungary
Israel
Lithuania
Serbia
Sweden
Ukraine
I also asked my non-fan father to listen to the official recap video of all 43 songs and come up with his own top five. Here's what he came up with:
1. Germany
2. Lithuania
3. Spain
4. Cyprus
5. F.Y.R. Macedonia
I hope you enjoyed these articles on Eurovision. The Grand Final will air live in America on Logo at 3:00 PM on Saturday May 12. The semi-finals will take place on May 8 and May 10 but will not air on American television. You will need to stick to Twitter updates or via other countries' streams in order to enjoy them.
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